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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers ascending together. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still